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Developing and applying scenarios of biological invasions for the 21st century

Project description

In AlienScenarios, we will quantitatively elucidate the range of plausible future invasion trajectories, provide crucially needed data for pro-active alien species management and policy, and explore options for arriving at preferred futures through the adaptation of existing policies.

Start date: 01.04.2019
End date: 30.03.2022

Project partners and Advisory board

University of Vienna (project coordination):
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre:
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ:
McGill University:
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique & University Paris Saclay:
University of Girona
Freie Universität Berlin & IGB

Advisory board:

Sven Bacher
Ana C. Cardoso
Piero Genovesi
Cang Hui
Philip E. Hulme
Stelios Katsanevakis
Paul Leadley
Georgina M. Mace
Melodie A. McGeoch
Michael Obersteiner
Aníbal Pauchard
Garry C. Peterson
Petr Pyšek
Wolfgang Rabitsch
David M. Richardson
Helen Roy
Mark van Kleunen
Montserrat Vilà
University of Fribourg, Switzerland
Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Italy
IUCN Invasive Species Specialist Group, Italy
Stellenbosch University, South Africa
Lincoln University, New Zealand
University of the Aegean, Greece
Université Paris-Sud, France
University College London, UK
Monash University, Australia
Institute for Applied Systems Analyses (IIASA), Austria
University of Concepción, Chile
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sweden
Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech Republic
Environment Agency, Austria
Stellenbosch University, South Africa
Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, UK
University of Konstanz, Germany
Estación Biológica de Doñana, Spain

Publication list

Essl F, Latombe G, Lenzner B, Pagad S, Seebens H, Smith K, Wilson JRU, Genovesi P, The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)'s Post-2020 target on invasive alien species - what should it include and how should it be monitored? NeoBiota (in production).

Latombe G, Essl F, McGeoch MA, The effect of cross-boundary management on the trajectory to commonness in biological invasions, Neobiota (in production).

Lenzner B, Latombe G, Capinha C, Bellard C, Courchamp F, Diagne C, Dullinger S, Golivets M, Irl SDH, Kühn I, Leung B, Liu C, Moser D, Roura-Pascual N, Seebens H, Turbelin A, Weigelt P and Essl F (2020) What Will the Future Bring for Biological Invasions on Islands? An Expert-Based Assessment. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 8:280,

Essl F, Lenzner B, Bacher S, Bailey S, Capinha C, Daehler C, Dullinger S, Genovesi P, Hui C, Hulme PE, Jeschke JM, Katsanevakis S, Kühn I, Leung B, Liebhold A, Liu C, MacIsaac HJ, Meyerson LA, Nuñez MA, Pauchard A, Pyšek P, Rabitsch W, Richardson DM, Roy HE, Ruiz GM, Nathan JCR, Sanders J, Sax DF, Scalera R, Seebens H, Springborn M, Turbelin A, van Kleunen M, von Holle B, Winter M, Zenni RD, Mattsson BJ, Roura‐Pascual N (2020). Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment. Global Change Biology, 26:4880–4893,

Essl F, Dullinger S, Genovesi P, Hulme PE, Jeschke JM, Katsanevakis S, Kühn I, Lenzner B, Pauchard A, Pyšek P, Rabitsch W, Richardson DM, Seebens H, van Kleunen M, van der Putten WH, Vilà M, Bacher S (2019) A Conceptual Framework for Range-Expanding Species that Track Human-Induced Environmental Change, BioScience, 69(11): 908–919,

Lenzner B, Leclère D, Franklin O, Seebens H, Roura-Pascual N, Obersteiner M, Dullinger S, Essl F (2019) A framework for global 21st century scenarios and models of biological invasions. BioScience,  69(9):697–710,

Essl F, Lenzner B, Courchamp F, Dullinger S, Jeschke JM, Kühn I, Leung B, Moser D, Roura-Pascual N, Seebens H (2019) Introducing AlienScenarios: a project to develop scenarios and models of biological invasions for the 21 st century. NeoBiota, 45: 1-17,

Conference posters

Latombe G, Lenzer B, Essl F, Developing and applying scenarios of biological invasions for the 21st century, EMAPi 2019, Prague, Czech Republic. See the poster.


The project is one of 21 international projects funded by the BiodivERsA and Belmont-Forum call 2018 on biodiversity scenarios.

Funding agencies



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